Evan Miyakawa on the best and most underperforming schools in the transfer portal

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AuricGoldfinger
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Evan Miyakawa on the best and most underperforming schools in the transfer portal

Post by AuricGoldfinger »

https://blog.evanmiya.com/p/which-schoo ... ost-out-of

Evan looked only at transfers from the last five seasons (2019-20 to 2023-24) in their first season after transferring. (Probably the one limitation of his analysis, but he says the datasets are too volatile after year one.) He uses an end-of-season statistical tool called Bayesian Performance Rating to assess production. He claims BPR is the best single metric for capturing a college basketball player’s value that he brings while on the court, on a per-possession basis. The metric incorporates a player’s individual efficiency stats and on-court play-by-play impact all in one. It also adjusts a player’s rating to account for the strength of all other players on the court for every possession played.

The table below shows which high major teams in the last five seasons underperformed given the production from each transfer on average. Not surprisingly, Vandy was in the bottom 13 of high major programs.

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Re: Evan Miyakawa on the best and most underperforming schools in the transfer portal

Post by VU1970 »

Math is hard!
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Re: Evan Miyakawa on the best and most underperforming schools in the transfer portal

Post by Jason94 »

AuricGoldfinger wrote: Thu May 16, 2024 1:18 pm https://blog.evanmiya.com/p/which-schoo ... ost-out-of

Evan looked only at transfers from the last five seasons (2019-20 to 2023-24) in their first season after transferring. (Probably the one limitation of his analysis, but he says the datasets are too volatile after year one.) He uses an end-of-season statistical tool called Bayesian Performance Rating to assess production. He claims BPR is the best single metric for capturing a college basketball player’s value that he brings while on the court, on a per-possession basis. The metric incorporates a player’s individual efficiency stats and on-court play-by-play impact all in one. It also adjusts a player’s rating to account for the strength of all other players on the court for every possession played.

The table below shows which high major teams in the last five seasons underperformed given the production from each transfer on average. Not surprisingly, Vandy was in the bottom 13 of high major programs.

Image
If we are only looking at year 1, this tracks. Players seemed to have needed at least half a season to get integrated into CJS' system, and some of the transfers were injured (like Robbins) during their first season.
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Re: Evan Miyakawa on the best and most underperforming schools in the transfer portal

Post by Jason94 »

If you click through the link, the list on the other end of the spectrum, you will see that James Madison is ranked 22nd in teams that get their transfers to outperform expectations. Perhaps an auspicious sign for things to come?
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